Scunthorpe 1-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Scunthorpe take on Sutton Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 4 as Scunthorpe welcome Sutton Utd to Sands Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Scunthorpe have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Scunthorpe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sutton Utd — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 League Two fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sutton Utd have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Scunthorpe 0.67 PPG, Sutton Utd 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Sutton Utd 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.979 / defence 1.432 | Sutton Utd attack 0.762 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 0.810 / away 0.850. Data: 3 Scunthorpe games / 2 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 30% | Draw 40% | Sutton Utd 30%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | Sutton Utd 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 30% | Draw 40% | Sutton Utd 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Scunthorpe 0.92 / Sutton Utd 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.979 / def 1.432 | Sutton Utd attack 0.762 / def 1.163 | league avg home 0.810 / away 0.850 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sutton Utd xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd?
Scunthorpe 1 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd part of?
Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 30% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-D. Sutton Utd (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Scunthorpe's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Scunthorpe's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
40%
2.53
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
1.85
0.93
Sutton Utd xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 0.93 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Scunthorpe come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Scunthorpe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sutton Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Scunthorpe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Scunthorpe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Sutton Utd in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Early Season
Sutton Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Scunthorpe or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Scunthorpe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Scunthorpe
1
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 0, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Sutton Utd 4-1 Scunthorpe.
Who has won more matches between Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 50% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 50% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Scunthorpe and Sutton Utd drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Sutton Utd 0.93 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.98 / defence 1.43 against Sutton Utd attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 30% | Draw 40% | Sutton Utd 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 0%, Sutton Utd 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Scunthorpe arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.