Scunthorpe 1-1 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool meet at Sands Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Scunthorpe's overall League Two record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sands Stadium, Scunthorpe have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Hartlepool (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hartlepool's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.20 PPG for Scunthorpe against 0.60 for Hartlepool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Scunthorpe, 0 for Hartlepool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Scunthorpe half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 48% versus Hartlepool 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 46% | Hartlepool 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.81 xG and Hartlepool 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.577 / defence 1.629 | Hartlepool attack 0.881 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.062. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Scunthorpe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Scunthorpe games / 44 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 20% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 54%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Hartlepool 1.85. Hartlepool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hartlepool as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hartlepool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Scunthorpe 40% | Hartlepool 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 20% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Scunthorpe 0.81 / Hartlepool 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.577 / def 1.629 | Hartlepool attack 0.881 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Hartlepool xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Scunthorpe 1 - 1 Hartlepool.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool part of?
Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 20% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Scunthorpe and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Hartlepool?
Record (1 meetings): Scunthorpe 0W | Draws 1 | Hartlepool 0W.
What form are Scunthorpe and Hartlepool in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Hartlepool (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Scunthorpe's attack rating (0.58) and Hartlepool's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (0.88x) against Scunthorpe's defence (1.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
20%
5.03
26%
3.83
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
2.34
1.52
Hartlepool xG
5.03
20%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.52 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Scunthorpe's recent record stands at 4W 13D 27L from 44 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Hartlepool, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 19L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hartlepool by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Scunthorpe heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Scunthorpe have managed 3W 6D 13L from 22 games — 0.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hartlepool's away record stands at 5W 4D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 0.98 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Current Season
Hartlepool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 4W 13D 27L in their last 44 games (0.57 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Hartlepool away?
Hartlepool's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.68 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Scunthorpe
2
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Hartlepool?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 0, Hartlepool have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-1 Hartlepool.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 46%, Hartlepool 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Scunthorpe) and 46% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe have failed to score in 46% of games; Hartlepool in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 46% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 46% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Scunthorpe and Hartlepool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Scunthorpe and Hartlepool drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.81 xG and Hartlepool 1.52 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.58 / defence 1.63 against Hartlepool attack 0.88 / defence 1.39, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 20% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 54%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 46%, Hartlepool 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Hartlepool's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hartlepool arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.