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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Walsall 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Walsall 1-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.22 xG and Walsall 1.47 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Walsall landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Walsall attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 32% | Draw 26% | Walsall 43%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Walsall 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Walsall's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.57 PPG, Walsall 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights