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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Tranmere 3-1 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.24 xG and Tranmere 1.42 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.20 against Tranmere attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 33% | Draw 26% | Tranmere 41%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 49%, Tranmere 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.55 PPG, Tranmere 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights