🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Salford City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Tranmere 2-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 2.05 xG and Tranmere 0.81 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tranmere landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Tranmere attack 0.69 / defence 1.49, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 66% | Draw 21% | Tranmere 13%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 55%, Tranmere 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Tranmere's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.26 PPG, Tranmere 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights