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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Oldham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Oldham 1-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.20 xG and Oldham 1.19 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oldham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Oldham attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 36% | Draw 28% | Oldham 36%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 58%, Oldham 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Oldham's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.58 PPG, Oldham 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights