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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.77 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.28 / defence 1.21 against Harrogate Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 47% | Draw 24% | Harrogate Town 29%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 49%, Harrogate Town 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights