Salford City vs Harrogate Town – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Harrogate Town 2-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.08 xG and Harrogate Town 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Harrogate Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 35% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 58%, Harrogate Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.16 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights