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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Salford City 0-2 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.87 xG and Grimsby 1.49 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.21 / defence 1.16 against Grimsby attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 47% | Draw 22% | Grimsby 31%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Grimsby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 52%, Grimsby 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Grimsby's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.57 PPG, Grimsby 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights