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Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Gillingham finished level at 0-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.64 xG and Gillingham 0.81 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gillingham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Gillingham attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 18%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Gillingham's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.63 PPG, Gillingham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights