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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Gillingham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Gillingham finished level at 2-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.25 xG and Gillingham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Gillingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 42% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 29%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.27 PPG, Gillingham 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights