🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Fleetwood Town finished level at 0-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.55 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 45% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 29%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.59 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights