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Fleetwood Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Salford City 0-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.82 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.83 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.09 / defence 0.74 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 70/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 60% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 16%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fleetwood Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.31 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights