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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Doncaster share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Doncaster finished level at 1-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.17 xG and Doncaster 1.60 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against Doncaster attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 28% | Draw 25% | Doncaster 47%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 55%, Doncaster 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.29 PPG, Doncaster 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights