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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crewe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Salford City 1-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.30 xG and Crewe 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Crewe attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 41% | Draw 29% | Crewe 30%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Crewe 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.50 PPG, Crewe 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights