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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Crewe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Crewe finished level at 1-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.11 xG and Crewe 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Crewe attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 80/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 37% | Draw 29% | Crewe 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 55%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.25 PPG, Crewe 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights