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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Colchester 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Colchester 4-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.22 xG and Colchester 1.57 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colchester outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Colchester attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 30% | Draw 25% | Colchester 45%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.52 PPG, Colchester 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights