🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Salford City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Colchester 4-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.17 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.29 PPG, Colchester 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights