Salford City 0-1 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Chesterfield encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 29 as Salford City welcome Chesterfield to Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City at Peninsula Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Peninsula Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chesterfield, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chesterfield's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Salford City are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Salford City, 2 for Chesterfield and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Chesterfield winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 57% versus Chesterfield 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 49% | Chesterfield 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.59 xG and Chesterfield 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.092 / defence 0.967 | Chesterfield attack 1.047 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.239. Data: 72 Salford City games / 73 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 45% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 30%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Chesterfield 3.33. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Chesterfield lead the H2H ledger, but Salford City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | Chesterfield 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 45% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Salford City 1.59 / Chesterfield 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.092 / def 0.967 | Chesterfield attack 1.047 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Salford City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chesterfield xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Chesterfield kick off?
Salford City vs Chesterfield kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Salford City 0 - 1 Chesterfield.
Where is Salford City vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Chesterfield part of?
Salford City vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 45% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salford City and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Chesterfield?
Record (3 meetings): Salford City 0W | Draws 1 | Chesterfield 2W.
What form are Salford City and Chesterfield in?
Salford City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Chesterfield (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salford City's attack rating (1.09) and Chesterfield's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.06
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.85
1.25
Chesterfield xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Salford City and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Salford City and 1.25 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City come into this having played 72 games, going 33W 19D 20L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chesterfield sit at 1.47 PPG from 72 outings (28W 22D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Chesterfield is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.64 PPG, Chesterfield on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salford City's home form reads 18W 8D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Chesterfield have taken 1.25 points per game from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.53 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Chesterfield
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 33W 19D 20L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 28W 22D 22L in their last 72 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Chesterfield away?
Salford City's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.72 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Chesterfield runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Chesterfield have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Chesterfield won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Chesterfield specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Salford City
1
Draws
4
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Chesterfield?
From 5 meetings on record, Salford City have won 0, Chesterfield have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Salford City 0-1 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Chesterfield?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 50%, Chesterfield 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Salford City) and 53% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Chesterfield?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Salford City's recent matches and 50% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Salford City's recent games and 53% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Salford City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Salford City 0-1 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.59 xG and Chesterfield 1.25 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Chesterfield attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 45% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 30%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 49%, Chesterfield 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Chesterfield's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.64 PPG, Chesterfield 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.