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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Salford City and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.97 xG and Cheltenham 1.10 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Cheltenham attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 21%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 49%, Cheltenham 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cheltenham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.53 PPG, Cheltenham 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights