Salford City 1-4 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Carlisle at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Carlisle have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Carlisle are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Salford City have won 1, Carlisle 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Carlisle in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 44% versus Carlisle 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 38% | Carlisle 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.06 xG and Carlisle 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.819 / defence 0.918 | Carlisle attack 1.178 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Data: 64 Salford City games / 64 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 37%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Carlisle 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carlisle at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 30% | Carlisle 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Salford City 1.06 / Carlisle 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.819 / def 0.918 | Carlisle attack 1.178 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Carlisle xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Carlisle kick off?
Salford City vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Salford City 1 - 4 Carlisle.
Where is Salford City vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Carlisle part of?
Salford City vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 34% chance of winning, Carlisle a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Salford City and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in?
Salford City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Carlisle (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.35
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Carlisle xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Salford City and 1.12 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City's recent record stands at 27W 17D 20L from 64 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 24L across 64 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.53 PPG, Carlisle on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 13W 12D 7L from 32 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 9W 8D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 27W 17D 20L in their last 64 games (1.53 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 21W 19D 24L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Carlisle away?
Salford City's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.59 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Salford City or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Carlisle in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2022, when Carlisle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
1
Draws
3
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Carlisle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Carlisle 2-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 44%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Salford City) and 59% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 28% of games; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Salford City's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Salford City's recent games and 59% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Carlisle tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carlisle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Salford City 1-4 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.06 xG and Carlisle 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Carlisle outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Carlisle attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 34% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 37%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 38%, Carlisle 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Carlisle's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.53 PPG, Carlisle 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.