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Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Cambridge United finished level at 0-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Cambridge United attack 0.65 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 50%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambridge United's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights