🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Salford City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bromley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Bromley 2-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.20 xG and Bromley 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bromley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 0.81 against Bromley attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 40% | Draw 29% | Bromley 32%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Bromley 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Bromley's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.62 PPG, Bromley 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Bromley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights