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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City and Bromley share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City and Bromley finished level at 3-3 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.35 xG and Bromley 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bromley outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Bromley attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 44% | Draw 30% | Bromley 26%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 36%, Bromley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Bromley's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.57 PPG, Bromley 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bromley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights