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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Bristol Rovers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.94 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bristol Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 22% | Bristol Rovers 22%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 49%, Bristol Rovers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights