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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Salford City 1-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.14 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Bradford attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 41% | Draw 31% | Bradford 28%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.27 PPG, Bradford 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights