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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Barrow 3-1 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.72 xG and Barrow 1.28 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Barrow attack 1.09 / defence 1.41, drawn from 83/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 48% | Draw 24% | Barrow 29%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Barrow 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Barrow's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights