🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Salford City 1-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.46 xG and Accrington ST 1.07 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Accrington ST attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Salford City 46% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 27%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Accrington ST 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Salford City's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Salford City 1.28 PPG, Accrington ST 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights