Rochdale 0-5 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Accrington ST travel to Spotland Stadium to take on Rochdale. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Spotland Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Rochdale) versus 1.40 (Accrington ST). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Rochdale trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 50% versus Accrington ST 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 58% | Accrington ST 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.28 xG and Accrington ST 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.986 / defence 1.195 | Accrington ST attack 0.875 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.061. Data: 12 Rochdale games / 58 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 38% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 30%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Accrington ST 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rochdale at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 50% | Accrington ST 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Spotland Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 38% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Rochdale 1.28 / Accrington ST 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.986 / def 1.195 | Accrington ST attack 0.875 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Accrington ST xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Accrington ST kick off?
Rochdale vs Accrington ST kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Spotland Stadium.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Rochdale 0 - 5 Accrington ST.
Where is Rochdale vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Spotland Stadium.
What competition is Rochdale vs Accrington ST part of?
Rochdale vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 38% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rochdale and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and Accrington ST in?
Rochdale (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rochdale's attack at 0.99x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.11
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.39
1.11
Accrington ST xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.11 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rochdale's recent record stands at 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 3L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.25 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rochdale have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Rochdale are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rochdale are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 67%.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Accrington ST away?
Rochdale's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.67 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rochdale and Accrington ST runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Rochdale
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Accrington ST?
From 1 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Accrington ST have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Rochdale 0-5 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 50%, Accrington ST 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rochdale) and 33% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Accrington ST in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rochdale's games and 67% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rochdale vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rochdale's recent games and 33% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Accrington ST run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Rochdale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Rochdale 0-5 at Spotland Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.28 xG and Accrington ST 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Rochdale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Accrington ST outscored their 1.11 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Accrington ST attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 38% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 30%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 58%, Accrington ST 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.25 PPG, Accrington ST 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.