Port Vale vs Walsall – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 1.09x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.57
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Walsall xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.43 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.