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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Salford City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Salford City 2-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.04 xG and Salford City 1.03 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Salford City attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 34% | Draw 32% | Salford City 34%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 45%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Salford City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.22 PPG, Salford City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights