Port Vale 4-2 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vale Park plays host to Port Vale versus Rochdale in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Port Vale are significantly better at Vale Park than their overall form suggests.
Rochdale have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in League Two this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Port Vale, 1.50 for Rochdale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port Vale 0W, Rochdale 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port Vale — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Rochdale — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 31% versus Rochdale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port Vale 15% | Rochdale 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.12 xG and Rochdale 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.719 / defence 0.736 | Rochdale attack 0.879 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.103. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Port Vale games / 13 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 43% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 21%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Rochdale 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 10% | Rochdale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 43% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Port Vale 1.12 / Rochdale 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.719 / def 0.736 | Rochdale attack 0.879 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Rochdale xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Rochdale kick off?
Port Vale vs Rochdale kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
Port Vale 4 - 2 Rochdale.
Where is Port Vale vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Rochdale part of?
Port Vale vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 43% chance of winning, Rochdale a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Port Vale and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Rochdale?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Rochdale in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Rochdale (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.72x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rochdale's attack (0.88x) against Port Vale's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 11/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.80
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.83
0.71
Rochdale xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.71 for Rochdale, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Port Vale against 1.15 for Rochdale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Port Vale are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rochdale's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Rochdale away?
Port Vale's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.83 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rochdale in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rochdale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Rochdale?
From 3 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Rochdale have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Port Vale 4-2 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Port Vale) and 50% (Rochdale) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Port Vale and 50% for Rochdale.
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 33% of games; Rochdale in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Port Vale's recent matches and 50% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Port Vale's recent games and 50% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Rochdale tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rochdale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Rochdale 4-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.12 xG and Rochdale 0.71 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rochdale outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.72 / defence 0.74 against Rochdale attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 43% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 21%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 15%, Rochdale 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rochdale's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.15 PPG, Rochdale 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rochdale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.