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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Newport County 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Newport County 3-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.25 xG and Newport County 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Newport County outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against Newport County attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 44% | Draw 31% | Newport County 25%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 44%, Newport County 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Newport County's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.14 PPG, Newport County 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights