Port Vale vs Crewe – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.90x) against Port Vale's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 16/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.53
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Crewe xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.15 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.