🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 24, as Port Vale and Cheltenham drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.50 xG and Cheltenham 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cheltenham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Cheltenham attack 1.16 / defence 1.28, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 40% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 33%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 44%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cheltenham's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.13 PPG, Cheltenham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights