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Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale and Carlisle finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.51 xG and Carlisle 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Carlisle attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Carlisle's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights