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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oldham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Tranmere 3-1 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.11 xG and Tranmere 1.38 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.76 / defence 0.83 against Tranmere attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 29% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 42%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 30%, Tranmere 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Tranmere's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oldham 1.20 PPG, Tranmere 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights