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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oldham and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham and Shrewsbury finished level at 2-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.18 xG and Shrewsbury 0.80 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.68 / defence 0.90 against Shrewsbury attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 45% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 25%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 23%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oldham 1.15 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights