🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Oldham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Newport County 3-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.93 xG and Newport County 1.03 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Newport County landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Newport County attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 32% | Draw 31% | Newport County 37%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 25%, Newport County 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Newport County's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights