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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Oldham edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.23 xG and Harrogate Town 0.88 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Harrogate Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 44% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 27%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 42%, Harrogate Town 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Oldham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights