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Stalemate at Oldham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 16, as Oldham and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.01 xG and Crewe 1.24 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oldham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Crewe attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 30% | Draw 28% | Crewe 41%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 27%, Crewe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crewe's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oldham 1.27 PPG, Crewe 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights