Oldham 3-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Crawley Town's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Oldham's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oldham have won 0, Crawley Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 47% versus Crawley Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 53% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.33 xG and Crawley Town 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.915 / defence 1.510 | Crawley Town attack 0.839 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.116. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Oldham games / 45 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 35% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Crawley Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 35% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Oldham 1.33 / Crawley Town 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.915 / def 1.510 | Crawley Town attack 0.839 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Crawley Town xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Oldham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Oldham 3 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Oldham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crawley Town part of?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 35% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Oldham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oldham's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.84
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.75
1.42
Crawley Town xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Oldham and 1.42 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 45 games, going 9W 10D 26L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (17W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 5W 3D 14L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 62%.
Last 45 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 9W 10D 26L in their last 45 games (0.82 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.82 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 54%, Crawley Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Oldham) and 54% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Oldham's games and 64% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oldham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Oldham's matches and 54% of Crawley Town's.
Do Oldham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oldham and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 46, as Oldham and Crawley Town drew 3-3 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.33 xG and Crawley Town 1.42 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.92 / defence 1.51 against Crawley Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.42, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 35% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 39%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 53%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.