Oldham 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Oldham) versus 0.60 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 46% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 49% | Crawley Town 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.88 xG and Crawley Town 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.126 / defence 0.991 | Crawley Town attack 0.995 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.103. Data: 58 Oldham games / 57 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 54% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 5.00. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 54% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Oldham 1.88 / Crawley Town 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.126 / def 0.991 | Crawley Town attack 0.995 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Oldham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Crawley Town xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Oldham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Oldham 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Oldham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crawley Town part of?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 54% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Oldham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oldham's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.87
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.97
1.09
Crawley Town xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
3%
33.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Oldham and 1.09 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 16D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.81 PPG from 57 outings (9W 19D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.68 points per game from 28 outings (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.98 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 19D 29L in their last 57 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crawley Town away?
Oldham's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.68 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Oldham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Crawley Town runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oldham
3
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Oldham 0-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 43%, Crawley Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oldham) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Crawley Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oldham's recent matches and 43% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oldham's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Oldham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Oldham 0-1 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.88 xG and Crawley Town 1.09 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oldham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Crawley Town attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 54% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 20%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 49%, Crawley Town 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.