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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oldham and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 2, as Oldham and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.12 xG and Colchester 1.17 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Colchester attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 33% | Draw 31% | Colchester 36%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 0%, Colchester 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oldham 1.00 PPG, Colchester 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oldham scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights