Oldham 1-2 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oldham at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Boundary Park plays host to Oldham versus Carlisle in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Oldham (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oldham have posted 4W 2D 4L at Boundary Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle's overall League Two record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Carlisle away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Oldham's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Oldham, 0 for Carlisle and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oldham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 47% versus Carlisle 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 56% | Carlisle 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.48 xG and Carlisle 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.061 / defence 1.371 | Carlisle attack 0.793 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.114. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Oldham games / 33 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 41% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 29%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Carlisle 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Oldham as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oldham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oldham 60% | Carlisle 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 41% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Oldham 1.48 / Carlisle 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.061 / def 1.371 | Carlisle attack 0.793 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Oldham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Carlisle xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Carlisle kick off?
Oldham vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Carlisle?
Oldham 1 - 2 Carlisle.
Where is Oldham vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Carlisle part of?
Oldham vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 41% chance of winning, Carlisle a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Oldham and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 1 | Carlisle 0W.
What form are Oldham and Carlisle in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Carlisle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oldham's attack at 1.06x the league average against Carlisle's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.79x) against Oldham's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.33
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.69
1.21
Carlisle xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Oldham and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Oldham and 1.21 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Oldham have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 10D 15L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Carlisle's form line: 8W 9D 15L from 32 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Oldham against 1.03 for Carlisle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oldham have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, Carlisle have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oldham are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.81 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Carlisle away?
Oldham's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.00 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Oldham or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carlisle in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oldham
1
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Carlisle?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Carlisle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Oldham 1-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 53%, Carlisle 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Oldham and 67% for Carlisle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 33% of games; Carlisle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Oldham's recent matches and 40% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Oldham's matches and 67% of Carlisle's.
Do Oldham and Carlisle tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Oldham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.48 xG and Carlisle 1.21 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 1.06 / defence 1.37 against Carlisle attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 41% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 29%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 56%, Carlisle 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Carlisle's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 0.97 PPG, Carlisle 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.