🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Oldham defy the odds to beat Bromley 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Bromley 1-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.96 xG and Bromley 1.36 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bromley landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.76 / defence 1.11 against Bromley attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oldham 27% | Draw 28% | Bromley 46%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 14%, Bromley 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oldham's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bromley's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Oldham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oldham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bromley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights