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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Notts County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 0.89 xG and Walsall 1.01 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Walsall attack 1.15 / defence 0.66, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 30% | Draw 35% | Walsall 36%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 63%, Walsall 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.44 PPG, Walsall 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights