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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Tranmere 5-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.77 xG and Tranmere 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Tranmere attack 1.16 / defence 1.28, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 53% | Draw 23% | Tranmere 24%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Tranmere 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Tranmere's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights