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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Tranmere 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Tranmere 2-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.00 xG and Tranmere 0.55 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.03 / defence 0.75 against Tranmere attack 0.68 / defence 1.48, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 71% | Draw 20% | Tranmere 9%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 60%, Tranmere 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Notts County 1.49 PPG, Tranmere 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights