🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Notts County run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Shrewsbury 4-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.86 xG and Shrewsbury 0.88 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Shrewsbury attack 0.72 / defence 1.47, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Notts County 60% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 17%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 45%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Notts County's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights